Where will City finish?Updated: December 20th, 2006
The Observer’s Paul Wilson reckons 16th (link), Matt Denver from the Independent predicts 15th (link) while the Sunday Times have us down for a 14th place finish with “a few scares on the way” (link).
According to the bookies we should finish around 12th (link), and 36% of those polled at the Bluemoon talkboard think we’ll finish between 5th and 8th, with 44% predicting 9th to 12th.
For me, though, there are just too many warning signs that point to a season near the relegation zone.
First is the number of new faces all being thrown in at once.
New signings Dabo, Corradi, Hamann and Trabelsi will all expect to play regularly next season. With a new keeper and Ishmael Miller looking likely to play left midfield (link) City could well be starting games with six players who are new to the club.
Add that to the reports that Pearce has been experimenting with several formations and you have a potentially dangerous mix. According to the Evening News (link):
Blues fans can expect to see plenty of variation on the standard 4-4-2 employed virtually throughout last term. With fresh faces on board, the manager has already been contemplating a 4-3-3 set up, a 4-1-4-1 shape for away from home and a 3-5-2 if the occasion demands it.
I can’t think of a team that has deployed four formations in a season and been successful. In fact, the last team to regularly change formations was England.
The next warning sign is the depth, age and balance of the squad.
Since 2004-05, we’ve lost 15 first-team players and brought in only nine. In midfield, the loss of SWP, McManaman, Bosvelt, Musampa, Riera, Croft and Flood has so far only been countered by the signings of Dabo and Hamann.
While four supporting strikers and five central midfielders should provide enough cover for those positions, other positions look dangerously threadbare.
Cole, our only striker with a proven record of successfully leading the line, is currently recovering from a double knee operation, while our only naturally wide midfielder is 33 and injury prone.
The ageing squad - six first team players with an average age of under 25 left the club this summer, while five players with an average age of 31 have been brought in - also points to us going in the wrong direction.
Then we have to factor in the injuries and suspensions that could hit an already thin squad.
According to physioroom.com (link) City suffered 22 injuries in 2004-05, with players sidelined for an average of 9.7 weeks per injury.
Add to that suspensions - bookmakers have three City players among the favourites to be the first to pick up five bookings this season (link) - and we’re looking at four to five players being unavailable for each game on average.
As I write this piece, news that a bid for Distin has been accepted by the club has just broken (link).
His departure would mean our goalkeeper, half our defence and our defensive midfielder would be near strangers when the season starts.
For a team that has managed just one win and ten defeats in our last eleven league games, and with an inexperienced manager who lacks a wise head to turn to for advice, it could prove to be the tipping point that sends us spiralling into the relegation zone.