Transfer special: The full cost of Keegan's spendingUpdated: December 20th, 2006
It’s reckoned that a new car can lose up to 20% of its value the moment you drive it off the forecourt.
A similar thing happened to Kevin Keegan’s signings as soon as the ink was dry on their contracts.
As the table below shows, Keegan’s signings lost an average of £808,000 in value for each year they were at the club.
In all, Keegan spent £44.2million on 16 players, 12 of whom have since left the club. Despite those dozen costing a combined £35.15m, City only recouped £9.33m for them.
Below are the details of Keegan signings who have since left the club:
* deal involved Alioune Toure moving to PSG.
Keegan is certainly not alone when it comes to unprofitable transfer dealings.
Steve McClaren’s signings at Middlesbrough lost £734,000 in value per year, while the average Ferguson’s signing has lost United £1,614,000 per season since 1998.
But maybe a better comparison would be with Sam Allardyce’s Bolton. Not as big an outfit as City, true, but like City a club who have been battling to establish themselves as a Premiership side.
Before splashing out on Anelka this summer, Allardyce had made a £1.5m profit on transfer dealings since taking charge in October 1999.
Which begs the question: how did Allardyce’s Bolton outperform Keegan’s City and still turn in a transfer profit?
You suspect the answer lies in their differing approach to the transfer market.
While Allardyce seems to look at transfer targets strictly in terms of the value they represent, you suspect that Keegan first set his heart on a player and only afterwards began figuring out how much he might cost.
Or to put it another way, while Allardyce was scouring eBay for bargains, Keegan was flashing his platinum card around Harrods.
That said, Keegan’s spending does have to be viewed in the context of the extra revenue generated by being promoted and remaining in the Premiership
In nearly four seasons in charge Keegan spent £44.2m and sold players for £13.4m, making a loss of £30.8m.
The wage bill increased by £61.7m over that period, bringing the total extra spending to £92.5m.
However, in the season Keegan took over City’s turnover was just £28m. In the following three seasons of Premiership football it grew by a combined £88m.
Surprisingly then, Keegan pretty much just spent what came in. Yet you suspect his downfall lay in his failure to grasp the intentions of the shareholders and the risks they were running.
The board that Bernstein headed took a gamble that Keegan’s extra spending could be recouped from the increased revenue from being in the Premiership.
That gamble paid off, something both the fans and the board should be grateful to Keegan for. But once safely back in the top flight the shareholders were unwilling to gamble further.
Bernstein was ousted, and the financial shutters came down.
I found this story in the McVittee newsletter. On May 14 2004, Keegan announced he was on the verge of signing two players.
“I have already started looking to next season and I hope to sign two new players in the next week,” he said. “They will either be very small fees or Bosmans, but they are both players we believe can take the club forward.”
The following day a Sky Sports News reporter asked him about future signings. Keegan replied that only John Wardle and Alistair Mackintosh could answer that:
“I don’t have the power at the club like I did two years ago,” Keegan told him.
Two days later it was reported that plans to sign the mystery pair were scrapped after Keegan was told there will be no funds available to him in the off-season.
“In previous seasons I have tried to bring people in early but previous seasons are not like this one,” Keegan said.
Like the trophy wife whose credit cards have been taken away, divorce proceedings were only a matter of time.
I came across this quote from Keegan from February 2002:
“To be a Premiership top-six side, which is what the chairman wants, I’ve told him that one day I am going to come and ask him for £50 million for two players. The fact is that Leeds have spent £100 million, Liverpool a lot of money and Newcastle, too, and that is why they are up there.”
In the end, the club proved no match for Keegan’s dreams.
Rosler keeps the faith
I was listening to Uwe Rosler being interviewed on TalkSport last night.
After talking about the great time he had at City and his regret that at the end “the ship was going down and down” he remarked: “Now we are having better times again.”
Uwe’s heart is clearly still at City, which makes you wonder whether he will return one day as manager.
After battling cancer, Rosler last year took over as manager of Norwegian Premier League side Lillestrom, who were having financial problems at the time.
In his first season they finished fourth and reached the cup final, and this season are currently third.
Rosler told TalkSport he wanted a couple more years experience before attempting to manage a top flight club, hopefully in England.
While stopping short of saying he’d love to manage City, that was certainly the impression he created.
“I have a few friends in Manchester who keep me updated,” he revealed.